As a scientist by training, I am addicted to plotting one variable against another looking for correlations in the data. Even non-scientists do the same thing all the time without really realizing it. Just look at the past furor over standard childhood vaccinations and the supposed fact that they were responsible for observed increases in cases of autism. It is indeed possible to plot increases in both phenomena over the same time period, but there may easily be a third, unknown factor at work. For example, one can get just as good a correlation between the incidence of autism and increased global warming, amount of illegal immigration into the United States, or increase in the number of video game users. In addition, even if there is causation between two factors, you cannot always determine which of the two is the causative factor.
There is also a tendency for us to look for a correlation where there is, in fact, none whatsoever. Two examples from the Bible will suffice to prove that fact. Job's friends felt that one's health and wealth on earth were only given by God to the righteous. Thus, when Job became ill and destitute, their false assumption was that he must have committed some horrible sin. Similarly, in the NT we read about Jesus' disciples seeing a man born blind from birth and asking Jesus who had sinned to make the man that way, his parents or himself. Jesus rejected their false correlation entirely and gave them a completely different reason.
What does this all have to do with the title of my post? It is leading up to an attempt I made to sort out the bewildering names of the numerous kings of Judah and Israel recorded in the books of Kings. Since the author conveniently gives the years of each king's reign as well as a capsule judgment on that king's spiritual character, I wondered if the two in fact correlated with one another in any way. My working hypothesis was that God would bless the kings who followed his will more than He did those who turned against his commands. In other words, I decided to think like Job's friends to see where it would lead me.
Looking first at the Northern Kingdom, we are treated to a sad parade of nineteen monarchs, each of whom reigned for anywhere from 41 years to seven days. And not one of them was given a clean bill of spiritual health by the author of Kings. So the only observation I could make out of this list was that the very worst of these kings, Ahab, actually had the third longest reign, 22 years. So much for my hypothesis in the case of Israel!
I expected some clearer trends when turning my attention to the Kingdom of Judah since the 19 monarchs there not only had reigns ranging from 3 months to 55 years but also were typified by the author as having a wide range of spiritual characteristics from exemplary to very poor. And when I plotted the data, for the most part there did seem to be a sort of correlation. Thus,
From a spiritual viewpoint, all but one of the seven longest reigning kings (29-55 years) had the reputation of being good to excellent in following God's will.
By contrast, the eight monarchs on the throne for the shortest duration (3 months to 11 years) were uniformly rated as poor.
And, finally, with one exception, those with intermediate reigns (16-25 years) were said to be moderately good in obeying God's commands.
You will note that I have drawn attention to two “outliers” in the data, as we would say in my field. These are the sort of data points that cause a scientist to tear his hair out looking for a logical reason. But rather than throw them out as mere artifacts, they must be carefully investigated to see if there are any insights we can gain from these anomalies. The additional factors described below (in no particular order) demonstrate why we cannot simply draw a straight-line correlation between the spiritual life of a monarch and his years of reign.
Considering King Ahab of Israel, he seems to have been allowed to reign longer than many others who were not quite as bad as he. One possible explanation in his case was that the worst excesses of Ahab's reign were actually led by his wife Jezebel rather than Ahab himself (see I Kings 21:25). Ahab's rather ineffectual nature apart from his wicked wife is best seen in the incident in I Kings 21:1-16 where he desires to buy Naboth's vineyard and sulks on his bed like a little boy when he can't have it. It is Jezebel who takes over at this point and sees that Naboth is condemned to death on trumped-up charges.
And if we look at the evil King Ahaz, we may wonder why he was allowed to reign a respectable term of 16 years. However, his entire reign was plagued with constant warfare from all sides by the Edomites, Philistines and Assyrians. II Chronicles 28:19 attributes these tribulations to God's judgment on the king's behavior “without restraint in Judah.” Thus, we see that divine retribution may come in forms other than an early death.
Turning to one of the kings of the Northern Kingdom, there is the interesting example of Jehu, whom God chooses to be his “hatchet man” to rid both kingdoms of their evil dynasties. Jehu does his job with a vengeance and sets himself up as king in Israel, where he becomes their longest reigning king at 28 years. We learn from the account of his rise to power and his reign that he is a totally unprincipled person who is just as idolatrous as the other kings of Israel, if not actually more so. However, God allows him a long life on the throne solely because of his earlier adherence to God's command (see II Kings 10:30).
And then there is another motive for God extending the reigns of very poor kings. It is described best in II Kings 14:26-27. That passage refers to the longest-reigning king of Israel, Jereboam II (41 years) even though the author of Kings characterizes him as “doing evil in the sight of the LORD.” (II Kings 14:24) In his case, God took pity, not on him, but on helpless Israel since He had sworn not to blot out their name from under the heaven. Therefore, he chose to save Israel by the hand of Jereboam.
We see this very same motive in the case of the 17-year reign of the rather poor King Jehoahaz since “the Lord was gracious to Judah and had compassion on them...because of his covenant with Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob...” (II Kings 13:23) Similarly, in II Kings 8:16-19, God does not cut off Abijam's line entirely “for David's sake.” A third time this happens is during the reign of the evil King Jehoram at which time God did not destroy Judah “for the sake of his servant David” and His promise to the house of David.
Two additional reasons for God's forbearance toward the nation and her kings are given in II Kings 19-20 during the long reign of Hezekiah. The first is stated after the Assyrians threaten to overthrow Jerusalem, but God saves the city “for my own sake and for the sake of my servant David.” (II Kings 19:34) God preserves the people so as to ensure that His reputation will not be held in contempt by the neighboring nations. And then during Hezekiah's rule, he becomes sick and is told by a prophet that he is about to die. After hearing this news, the king beseeches God in prayer and He adds 15 more years to his life. (II Kings 20:6)
There is also the case of the exceedingly good King Josiah, whose reign we would have predicted to last even longer than his 31 years. But it is cut short, not due to any sin of Josiah himself. Surprisingly, God does it for the earlier wickedness of King Manasseh. Read II Kings 23:25 where fact is clearly expressed.
Uzziah, also called Azariah, is characterized as a good king in II Kings 15:3; however, God afflicted him with leprosy during his long reign. Waite notes, “The author of Kings shows great reticence in dealing with his reign.” This is probably because it represents another “outlier.” We need to look at the longer description of his reign as described in II Chronicles 26:16-21, however, to get the full picture. It appears that Uzziah's great accomplishments went to his head later in his rule and he personally entered the temple and attempted to make an offering on the altar of incense (which was reserved for the priesthood) when God struck him with his skin condition and he was forced to live in a separate house while his son Jothan took over most of his kingly duties.
But perhaps the greatest mystery of all is why Manasseh's reign was so very long. It has been characterized by Sheriffs as “bloody and reactionary, and notorious for the introduction of illegal altars into the Temple courts and 'the passing of his sons through the fire' in the valley of the son of Hinnon.” If all that was so, why was he allowed to reign longer than any other Judean monarch? Again, the answer is given in II Chronicles 33:10-20 in which we learn that God chastens the king half-way through his reign by allowing him to be taken captive into Babylon. But while there, he sincerely repents of his actions and at last turns to God in prayer. He is subsequently released from captivity and proceeds to lead an exemplary life dedicated to reversing the errors of his earlier career.
So in conclusion,
1. We need to remember that although there may indeed be a rough correlation between how blessed one is in this life and how closely one follows God's guidelines, there are many other hidden factors at work, and only God Himself knows all of them.
2. Also, keep in mind that a nation's fate does not solely depend on the spiritual health of its leaders since the people in that nation have their own individual responsibilities before God to answer for.
3. Finally, any parallels one wishes to draw between the nation of Israel as a whole, the Northern Monarchy, or the Southern Monarchy with the United States of American is bound to be faulty since, unlike them, there is no unique covenant in place between us and God.
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