EZEKIEL 38: A CHAIN OF REASONING

A chain of reasoning is a series of statements, all of which must be correct in order for the final 

conclusion to be correct. It has been said, “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link”  But that is not 

true for this type of chain; it is actually weaker than the weakest link. That is because the probabilities 

for each individual statement must be multiplied together to arrive at the probability that your 

conclusion is also correct.

 

A simple illustration is to look at the probability of flipping heads on a coin twice in a row. The first 

flip has a 50% chance of landing on heads and so does the second flip. But the chance of getting two 

heads in a row is only 50% of 50% = 25%.

Chains of reasoning involving Bible interpretation unfortunately pop up all the time. Here is a typical example I encountered from a Bible teacher in town. 

Russia will fight against the USA at the Battle of Armageddon described in Ezek. 38.” (Scott Barkely, Bibletrek)

His reasoning was based on six contentions:

1. The passage in Ezekiel refers to the Battle of Armageddon. That is probably true although the typical apocalyptic hyperbole (exaggeration) present in the passage (such as the earth shaking) may refer to another historic battle closer to Ezekiel's time. Some of the same language is borrowed by John in the Book of Revelation to refer to Armageddon, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the same event is being talked about in both places, only the use of language that would be familiar to John's audience.

2. Meshech (v. 2) is Moscow. (a) It has been pointed out many times in commentaries that there is absolutely no connection between the words Meshech and Moscow from an etymological (word origins) viewpoint. (b) Meshech and Tubal are well attested cities in Assyrian records and in the ancient historian Herodotus and located nowhere near Moscow.

3. Tarshish (v. 13) is in Spain. We are actually quite uncertain where it is located, but there is an ancient city in Spain that has a similar name. Or it could refer to Tarshish (Tarsus) in Turkey. Others confidently state that it was on the North African coast or on the island of Sardinia or Malta. Still others feel that ships of Tarshish does not refer to any place name at all but describes any large sea-going vessel or ore-containing ship.

4. Since Colombus sailed from Spain, by extension Tarshish really stands for the USA. There is absolutely no hint in the text that it refers to any location beyond Tarshish itself. Even if it did, Columbus never landed in North America. One could just as well argue that Canada or South America or Cuba are being referred to.

5. The young lions in v. 13 = soldiers. "Young lions" has been variously interpreted as merchants, slave traders, kings or villages.

6. The rest of the chapter describes a battle between these two world powers. If Tarshish really refers to the USA, then according to Ezekiel, we will only be observers of the conflict, not actually taking part in it. Only verse 21 alludes to an actual battle, and it will be Gog and her allies fighting one another. All the other disasters befalling Gog consist of plagues inflicted directly by God.

Even if we are very generous and assign a 50% probability for each of the six statements, all of which 

need to be correct for final conclusion to hold together, the final probability of his conclusion being 

true is only 1.5%.

 

In closing, I should make it clear that a chain of reasoning is not at all the same as citing parallel Bible 

passages to prove a point. If there are, say, two independent passages that appear to state the same 

thing, then that strengthens the probability that at least one of them does, compared to having only one 

such passage. Going back to our  coin example, this time look at the probability that at least one toss 

out of two will result in heads. In this case, the chance of failure must be calculated instead. Thus, there 

is a 25% chance that both tosses will be tails, leaving a 75% chance that at least one of them will be 

heads.